Ageing Population: Hong Kong Environment
Introduction
Ageing population has been considered as one of the most important issues to be given attention by the government of each nation. Accordingly, the ageing population is vastly inceasing and as noted by the World health organization (2005), there is a greater tendency that the number of indiviudals with age 60 or above will increase rapidly in this comping 50 years (WHO, 2005). Such expectation can also be attributed in the population of Hong Kong. Primarily, the main goal of this paper is to analyse the HK population’s ageing demographic.
Ageing Population Transformations
Mortality declination among younger ages, medical advances, as well as better health care has lead to having a longer life expectancy in countries like Hong Kong (Health and Welfare Bureau, 1999). In addition, birth control has reduced the population of the younger individuals. Such attainments in the 20th century have altered and transformed the world’s demographic proportions. Such demographic transformations also pose as one of the key challenges in social policies as well as workforces or human services in the 21st century.
As stated in the Statistics compiled by the United Nations, it presented that in 1999, 10% of the world population is 60 years and above. By 2050, this percentage will rise to 22% (United Nations Population Division, 1999). In line with Asian demographics, the corresponding proportion of the population aged 60 and over is 9% in 1999, and 24% in year 2050. On one hand, the proportion of the ageing population in Hong Kong is even higher: 14% in 1999, and an estimated 40% in 2050, the highest in Asia. The following table shows the proportions of aged population in the Asia Pacific region.
Table 1.
Proportion of Ageing Population in Asia in 1999 and 2050
Country or Area
% Total Population aged 60 & over
in 1999
% Total Population aged 60 & over
in 2050
% Ageing Population aged 80 & over
in 1999
% Ageing Population aged 80 & over
in 2050
Asia
9
24
9
18
China
10
30
10
23
Hong Kong SAR
14
40
14
31
Japan
23
38
16
31
Macau
9
35
14
32
S. Korea
10
30
8
24
Brunei Darussalam
5
24
9
23
Cambodia
5
14
7
11
Indonesia
7
22
7
15
Malaysia
6
21
9
18
Philippines
6
20
9
14
Singapore
10
31
13
36
Thailand
8
30
10
21
Vietnam
7
23
10
17
Source: United Nations Population Division (1999). Population Ageing 1999. NY: UN publications.
It has been noted that the increased in the life expectancies being enjoyed by the population in the world also indicates the life span of over 60 is much longer than the demographers who envisaged previously. Most statistical census has categorized the population of the ageing population individuals in one age group which is about 60-65 and above (Eskesen, 2002). A large proportion of the population stays economically active even beyond 60 years of age (Faruquee, 2002). In addition, a large number of proportions of the population also live during their 80 years oir byeong. In most Asian nations like Hong Kong, the statutory retirement age is 55 or 60. A decade ago, the life expectancy at age 60 is another 16 years for Asian males and another 19 years for Asian females. For instance, in Hong Kong, males may expect to live another 20 years while women can live for another 24 years at age 60. Such demographic transformations indicate that the undiverseiated grouping in census statistics would restrict the usefulness of such figures. The activity level, care demand, as well as health needs of individuals in their 60s, 70s, 80s and beyond are varied.
The ageing population or the ageing population could be further diverseiated into the modest old (age 60 to 79) and the oldest old (80 and over) as noted by the (United Nations Economic and Social Council, 2000). Ten years ago, 9% of the ageing population (over age 60) is aged 80 and over; in 2050, this proportion is expected to rise to 18%. For instance, In Hong Kong, they are 14% in 1999 and estimated to be 31% in 2050 (see table above).
The possible support for the ageing population comes from the economically active population. The possible support ratio is calculated on the basis of the proportion of the population aged between 15 and 64 to that aged 65 and over. With the decreasing fertility in Asia, such ratio will decrease from 11 in 1999 to 4 in 2050. For instance in Hong Kong, the ratio will drop from 7 to 2. This indicates that by 2050, there will be only two younger persons possiblely supporting one ageing population person at a population level in Hong Kong (Dodsworth & Mihaljek, 1997).
Like any other countries, the ageing population of Hong Kong is also growing rapidly, Rising longetivity as well as low fertility are causing a gradual decline in the growth of the population as well as shift in the age structure of the demograohics to a greater share of the ageing population. Whereas the present old-age dependency ratio of Hong Kong SAR is about 16% is low as compared to the comparator economies in the region, it is predicted to double by 2030 and exceed those of other Asian nations which include Japan (including Japan) by 2060 (Figure 1b). As seen in Figure 1, it shows that the rate of individuals with age over 64 has increased gradually from 1998-2003.
Figure 1a
Mid year population by age group
(Census and Statistics Department, 2005).
Figure 1b
On one hand, there is also an increasing trend in terms of life expectancy as shown in Figure 2. It has been noted that even if life expectancy is increasing, it does not mean that the quality of life of ageing population individuals can also be enhanced. Hence, it is significant that the government should be able to formulate transformation managementfor these types of individuals.
.
Figure 2
Expectation of life at Birth by Gender in HK
(Census & Statistics Department, 2005).
Adhering to the needs of transformation managementfor ageing population individuals, diverse organisation should be able to impose this transformation management initiative. The transformation management program that will be evaluated is the “Happy Ageing Transformation management Program”. The main goal of this program is to provide assistance to ageing population individuals for them to have a quality and happy living in spite of their ages. In addition, this also aims in providing information on how to manage ageing population as part of the human resource management provisions. In Hong Kong, it has been noted that the labour or workforce have grown from 3.2 million in 1996s to 3.6 million in ten years, despite a drop in terms of the entire workforce particiaption rate from 63% to 60% respectively. This is because of the increase in the size of the population and the transformation in the population’s age-sex structure (Dang, Antolin & Oxley, 2001). In year 2006, about 33% of the manpower and work forcein Hong Kong is in the position of administrators, managers, professionals as well as assoiciate professionals up from 29% during 1996. The proportion and ratio of the work force engaged as craft and relevant workers dropped from 12% to 8% In year 2006. Accordingly, retail, wholesale as well as import/export trades, hotels and restaurants, social and personal services, and community services have been considered to be the largest economic sectors that employ about 27% of the working population.
In line with the census statistics which published in the year 2006, Hong Kong has the lowest birth rate all over the world with only 0.9 child bearing ages for every woman as compared to the replacement rate of only 2.1. The nation or region has the 966 born babies for every fertile woman of 100 and has been estimated to have 26.8% of the total population for the year 2006. Hong Kong population became rapidly ageing due to the low birth rates and well as the lack of reluctance of the young Chinese came in mainland in migrating into the Hong Kong city.
Since, Hong Kong is primarily relies on the younger indiviiduals that came from the mainland China that can boost its population and to thehistorical and conventional city into the low birth rate. This implies that the Hong Kong government can have the options of giving tax relief into the bigger families as well as it can also consider of having the award of “baby bonus” in boosting the women for having more children. The low birth rate in Hong Kong is the world largest whereas the analysts predict that if this incident will continue, most of the number of individuals which as the age of 64 and over can accounted for the city’s third population in the year 2033 (Deutsche Presse – Agentur, 2008).
The great effect of the population ageing or the low fertility rates into the hong Kong economy include the individual earnings and life-cycle. The said demographic can have a hump-shaped pattern as the earnings and income will rise as the young for the individuals in entering to the laboor or work force and can begin to gain the work experience while having the peak in the middle age but there is a declination as the individuals in moving to the retirement.
Into the side of the supply, the demographic of the age-earnings will only reflect to the relative transformations of labour and productivity of the working life of the individual. This transformation in the populations’ alterations and rapid growth fo ageing population structure will aggregately implication the supply in the aide of the difference of individual labour supply. On the side of demand, the individuals can assumed in adjusting the smooth as well as savings consumptions that is based on the anticipated path of the income of life-cycle whereas the net borrowers are the young individuals due to current income which is below their permanent income. Aside from that, it can implication the economy in the potential declination of growth and the possibility of slower to both the participants of manpower and work force and GDP for the growth in revenue which is from the income-based taxes. This indicates that the lack of the tax increases or its increase in the rates of the contribution to social security can result in the lower revenues. There must also be rise for the demand of health services as well as pressured for the expenditures of health to rise as well and reflects to the rise of spending to the long term care, pension, and the health care. In this regard, there is the pressure for the additional budget that can arise to upgrade the system of education as well as the quality of workforce so that the nation or region will remain to be competitive (Leigh, 2006).
The Future
As the growth of ageing population has been also increasing, diverse government departments as well as prvate organisations and the management, including those concerning health care, medical and welfare services, should work more closely in providing multi-disciplinary services, as well as establish a seamless long-term care system. There will be continuous advocation for more community support services as well as volunteers to be able to provide the needs of the ageing population. Accordingly, the rapid growht of the ageing population in this generation is a major issue in human service planning nad human resource management. It can be said that the international experts population as wlel as development have noted the fundamental connection among population, gende and development. An intensive policy on ageing population needs the compilation of the data as well as the use of these analyses to provide an efficient change mangement approach. Accordingly, the issue of ageing in countries like Hong Kong are creating an active debate regarding the family, gender and the organisations of the workplace environment and the provisions and strategies to adhere to the challenges and issues (Boling, 1998.
Adopting concepts of continuum of transformation management as well as care and service integration will have to be made as the quantity and types of services for the ageing population have been increasing. As integration becomes the major trend in ageing population service, welfare personnel are required to learn and master diverse skills and knowledge necessary to provide quality care to the elders, such as nursing care, psychological and social care of the elders and many others (Cheung, 1999). Circumstances have transformationd so much that a new strategy of approach in the ageing problem would definitely bring about better support system for the ageing population. At the same time, promote among the ageing population a more positive outlook towards life.
Conclusion
The analysis in this report shows that under unchanged management ageing population could adversely implication growth and living standards in Hong Kong. While higher workforce productivity growth as well as increased migration of younger skilled workers from the mainland and other regions would attenuate the economic implication of ageing, they would not offset it fully. Ageing will also put pressure on the public finances particularly on health care cost and insurance. Hence, an integrated and early response for the ageing population issues is highly demanded to address the implication of population ageing.
As the demographic changes and imolications will start setting in about 2015 when the workforce and manpower support ratio is projected to peak, this leaves a window of potentialities and chances during the next 10 years to design specific countervailing issues for the management which could mitigate the implication of ageing. Given the likely stress on public finances, stanard measures could be taken to mitigate the implication of the likely rise in health and long-term-care spending on public finances as well as private finances. Strengthening the fiscal position could be achieved through a mix of continued expenditure restraint specifically in non-age-sensitive areas, continuance and maintenance of the ongoing reforms in health care provision (including introducing private health insurance system and raising user fees—with safeguards for the needy), as wel as change in management system that will also change the welfare programs and nd revenue-enhancing measures.
Other approaces could also be taken to shift the associated health care costs of ageing to the pivate sector which could involve the introduction of a Medicare-type levy on employees to be administered by the Mandatory Provident Fund. As noted in Section IV, the Hong Kong SAR government agents are already considering some of these measures these integhration with continued success at fiscal consolidation would go a long way in mitigating the implication on the public finances and the needs of the management approach of a rapidly ageing population.
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